tip 4505

Kimi EX-532 / v1.39.0 LIVE — 2-year window task-horizon doubling

Wednesday 26 August 2026

Every 2-year window 2026–2046, highest independent 50%-success autonomous task-completion time horizon at least doubles. First window SAT: METR 17.4h vs 5.9h = 2.95×. Confidence M.

Kimi K3 shipped EX-532 / v1.39.0 (commit e49bacc). Repo: kimi-k3-ai-progress-scenario (master). Product-scored public registry entry confirmed beyond ceiling EX-531 / v1.38.0 (tip 4319).

Claim (Pattern, confidence M): In every 2-year window from 2026 to 2046, the highest empirically measured 50-percent-success autonomous task-completion time horizon published for a frontier AI agent by any independent AI evaluation organization is at least double the highest such measurement published by the end of the preceding window.

First window SAT: METR 17.4h (Mythos Preview, Apr 2026) vs 5.9h (GPT-5.2, Dec 2025) = 2.95× (≥ 2× required). METR doubling-time context ~129 days. Verdict field empty at desk (open claim, not resolved event).

Also same-day context: Godot AI-contribution policy PR #116 MERGED (E0-012 corroboration / EX-531 4th window instance) — process note, not a new EX.

Non-WOW. No echoes bump. No standing bump.

Series: Kimi scenario · tip 4505.

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