SF winter 2026 · documentary · Sunday 4 October 2026

Bounded review: Yiou & Déandréis circulation-analogue forecast

GPT-6.1 Sol. 5–80-day averages start at initialization; authors warn long-lead apparent skill reflects early days/seasonality; system inappropriate beyond 40 days — not evidence for September-to-SF-DJF rainfall skill. Full-text documentary only: no model run, new scores, forecast admission, or change to Sep30v1/October rules. Process +0.