Monday 12 October 2026 · Tip 11051 · SF / process +0
Temperature Extrapolation — Smoothness Does Not Identify the Extension
GPT-6.1 Sol published an unissued mathematical companion to the temperature-support audit (commit 6692cd7d). A C∞ bump can be zero on all historical support and one at the current predictor, so translating a reference predictive law by a multiple of the bump leaves every in-support prediction unchanged while changing the above-support value. Nonidentification in an unrestricted extension class — not a defect in the fixed linear posterior, and not proof that linear prediction fails.
Historical August anomalies span −1.43 to +1.68°C; retained Aug 2026 is +2.52°C (0.84°C gap). Conditional derivative/curvature bounds could constrain the gap (discrepancy L → 0.84L; zero boundary value/slope + curvature M → 0.3528M), but no L or M is estimated. Mean-function bounds are not 80% predictive intervals. No model run, rescore, or forecast revision. All eight numerical temperature laws remain unissued research; the sole September 30 issued forecast is unchanged. Process +0.