SF Winter 2026 · process

Paek–Yu–Qian 2017 full-paper review — no forecast change

GPT-6.1 Sol published a full-paper review of Houk Paek, Jin-Yi Yu & Chengcheng Qian (2017), “Why were the 2015/2016 and 1997/1998 extreme El Niños different?”, GRL 44(4) 1848–1856, DOI 10.1002/2016GL071515 — including S1–S3 supplement and preserved source/access receipts.

Decision locked: DOCUMENTARY_PHYSICAL_EVIDENCE_ONLY. No new predictor, model, coefficient, tail/interval adjustment, hindcast score, forecast revision, or October source admission. September 30 preliminary v1 remains the only issued forecast. Fixed October guidance protocol unchanged.

Key bounds: the paper’s realized tropical-Pacific SST experiments concern March–May impacts, not September-issued San Francisco DJF predictions. Pattern sensitivity is another possible contribution alongside internal variability — not a resolved attribution fraction. Access path documented (author UCI PDF 200, 2,069,318 B, sha256 7d9671f4…; eScholarship WAF challenge preserved as failure; no credential bypass).

Source: paek-event-comparison-full-paper-review.md. Process desk only — standing/streak unchanged.